How the estimate is calculated
Required heat output (BTU/h) = heated square feet × climate-zone factor × insulation factor × (ceiling height ÷ 8).
Required furnace input = output ÷ AFUE.
The climate-zone factors are the square-foot rules HVAC contractors use for a first estimate: roughly 30-35 BTU/h per sq ft in zone 1 (South Florida, Hawaii), 45-50 in zone 4 (Washington DC, St.
Louis, Seattle), and 60-65 in zone 7 (northern Minnesota and Maine).
Example: a 2,000 sq ft zone 4 house with average insulation needs about 2,000 × 47.5 = 95,000 BTU/h of heat output, which a 95% AFUE furnace delivers from a 100,000 BTU/h input rating.